The Only Sure Thing That We Can Predict Is That I Will Make An Ass Out Of Myself

Nostradamus pictured without sunglasses on a rare break from his duties with ZZ Top.

I am feeling listless and vaguely ill. I have a runny nose and my eyes feel fried and it's possible that I have contracted AIDS or terminal syphilis or been poisoned by my enemies. Or all three.

The point is, is that I am not at my best and so this will likely be kept reasonably short - at least for me. Of course, there is always the chance that I could run on for a billion words if I am moved by the holy spirit, but you should always assume that this is true whenever you dive down this fucked up rabbit hole with me. I just don't want anyone to call me a worthless cocksucker because I didn't meet their blogging needs. I mean, there are plenty of other reasons to call me that.

Anyway, let's just get to it and hopefully I won't die in the middle.

PREDICTION THE FIRST: Best will play, but will be less than 100%. He'll manage to run for 65 yards on 14 carries and he'll catch 5 passes for 55 yards.

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Best did play, and he was less than 100% but it didn't seem to limit him in any way. For the game, Best rushed for 50 yards on only 12 carries and caught 5 passes for 34 yards.

Man, I was pretty close here, wasn't I? Hooray? Well, I wish I was close on a week where Best ran for 200 yards and caught 10 passes for another 100, but hell, I'll take what I can get. Honestly, Best looked okay against the Packers. He never broke anything, but he was always a weapon, always someone that the Packers had to account for. And really, that's the hidden value in a player like Best. Even when he isn't going off, he still requires the other team to devote resources to stopping him, which then opens up the rest of the field for the other players to make plays.

Best only carried the ball 12 times. I assumed that he wouldn't get many carries both because of his injury and because the Lions would be nuked and forced to listen to Death From Above by the Packers and then would be forced to throw the ball a billion times in order to keep up. This sort of happened, but not really.

Instead, the Lions game plan almost from the start seemed to be to come out and throw, throw, throw. Naturally, this limited Best's role in the offense as he was used more of a changeup than as the fastball the coaches want him to be. This was probably a function of two things: one, Best was hurt and the coaches probably knew going in that they couldn't rely upon him to carry the load. And number two, they probably also assumed going in that they would have to come out aggressive and throwing the ball to have any chance to hang with the Packers and Aaron Rodgers. The Lions offense was conducted the whole game like they were playing to win, like they had to get first downs and get to the end zone at any cost. This is a marked difference from the languid pace the team tried to set early on in the first three games, and I liked it.

This is basically the Scoring Offense, the offense that the team will use whenever they know they have to score points. I used to see this at Michigan all the time under Lloyd Carr. Most of the time it was all run, run, run, punt, play defense and try to escape with a win. But whenever Michigan would play a real opponent, an Ohio St. or a Florida for instance, the team would come out of the locker room throwing out of the shotgun, playing like they knew that they needed to score and score often in order to win. It was like watching two different teams.

I have drawn hazy comparisons between Schwartz and Carr here before, comparisons which tend to fly in the face of the idea that Schwartz is some sort of new age coach who breaks out the calculator before each play and cares about things like game theory and maximizing opportunities and all that. Instead, I think Schwartz is very much like Carr. I think he's an old school coach who believes in minimizing mistakes and in the holy power of proper execution. He is Carr, he is Jim Tressell, he is Kirk Ferentz, he is Joe Paterno. Yeah, yeah, I know I'm only using college coaches here, but that's because that is where the biggest disparity between the new and the old can be found. A lot of people won't agree with me, but I think that Schwartz belongs to that old school. This is just what I have observed through watching the games.

I won't go so far as to say that this is a bad thing. It's just a different philosophy than what I had expected when he was hired. It's a philosophy that believes in taking care of the little things, in protecting the ball, in playing defense and in out-executing the other team. The only problem that I have with this philosophy is that it works when A.) you have more talent than the other team, B.) you have kick-ass defenses, and C.) you have an offense that is capable of grinding down and then breaking an opposing defense. The problem with A should be obvious. The Lions are not only not more talented than anyone else, they are less talented than most teams. Besides, it's the NFL - the talent disparity is quite small by design. The problem with B is also obvious - the Lions defense is nowhere near a kick-ass defense. And the problem with C is that the Lions offense, while potentially explosive, is not good enough to just push opposing defenses around the field. We have a rookie running back and an offensive line that on its best day passes for mediocre.

The point is this: The Lions need to maximize opportunities in order to win. This is what we saw on Sunday. And this is because Jim Schwartz realized he had no other choice. Much like when Carr would be forced to release the hounds when he was at Michigan, this then coincided with the offense looking better than it had all season. However, coaches don't like to rely on this because it's not philosophically correct. It's not what they want to do and so it is saved as a sort of desperate last measure.

Anyway, I could probably talk about this forever and get into fourth down decisions and all that noise (which I actually tentatively plan on bringing up tomorrow) and so I'll just say this: this is not a condemnation of Schwartz. It's just that we probably need to recalibrate our expectations about what kind of a coach he is and what he isn't. Am I disappointed? Yeah, I'll admit that. I am a new school guy who always wants to go for it and believes in maximizing opportunities rather than minimizing mistakes. So, naturally, it's hard for me to accept what Schwartz is doing. But I still believe in him. At least he has a system. At least he has a vision and I owe it to him to let him see that through. Do I think it will ultimately work? Yeah, I do. Is it helping win games right now? No, I don't think so.

All this was one roundabout way of explaining why Jahvid Best only ran the ball 12 times against the Packers. It was actually planned that way and it made for a more effective offense. Ideally, you'd like to see that number doubled, but Best was hurt and the Lions were playing from behind the whole game so 12 is what we get.

Anyway, I meant to address the whole Schwartz thing tomorrow and I may still do so, but I might not. I hit a lot of the points I planned on hitting then. I'm not quite sure why I hit them today, but I think it just naturally flowed in that direction and besides, remember that I might have AIDS or some exotic strain of monkey malaria so these things happen.

PREDICTION THE SECOND: Shaun Hill will complete 20 of 38 passes for 196 yards and a touchdown to go with 2 interceptions. Clay Matthews will skin him alive and spend all of next week wearing his flesh like a suit.

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Well, Hill actually completed 34 of 54 passes for 331 yards and 2 touchdowns. He did throw those 2 interceptions though, so hey, I got that right.

This was the other side of the Scoring Offense coin. Hill was allowed to throw the ball, throw it again and then throw it some more against the Packers and he actually looked pretty good in doing so. It was a fine game plan, one that took advantage of the Lions unique weapons. Calvin was a force - at least in the first half - and Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler showed just how dangerous the Lions two tight end attack could be.

It was the first time where the offensive game plan of Scott Linehan really snapped into place, as Pettigrew and Scheffler served as safe outlets for Hill. Combined, they caught 14 passes, passes that didn't require much from Hill and allowed the Lions to move the ball down the field methodically. It was the ultimate example of using the short passing game as an effective replacement for your running game. And it would have been even better if Pettigrew wouldn't have dropped a couple of key passes.

I thought Hill did a good job running the offense - at least in between the twenties. He was able to keep plays alive and even showed a decent ability to scramble when there was room available, rushing for 53 yards on only 4 carries. This was the Shaun Hill we were all hoping to get when the Lions traded for him.

Of course, it wasn't all sunshine and blowjobs. Hill struggled in the red zone. I won't put the first interception completely on him since Jahvid Best fell down, but he shit the bed when the Lions had a first and goal on the Packers six yard line and failed to reach the end zone. Hill threw three straight incomplete passes and should have just scrambled in on one of them. It was an ugly throwback to the end of the Eagles game when Hill threw four straight incomplete passes to effectively end the game.

But, there is a reason why Hill is the backup and Matthew Stafford is the savior and soon enough, hopefully, we can see the Lions trot out the Scoring Offense with Stafford leading the way. Thanks for trying, Shaun. You can now take your place in Valhalla alongside Bob Gagliano and Mike McMahon.

As for Clay Matthews skinning Hill alive, well . . . Shaun is still with us and Clay ended up not being able to craft a suit from Shaun's flesh. Unfortunately, this means that Clay Matthews is stalking the streets of Green Bay naked and angry, his dick flapping in the wind, his wild and feral eyes bouncing back and forth just like his pendulous and animalistic balls.

I . . . I'm sorry.

PREDICTION THE THIRD: Calvin Johnson will be double teamed into oblivion and will catch 4 passes for 46 yards and we will all weep before settling into a nice, placid ennui.

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: What's this? Calvin Johnson actually came to life? Indeed. Well, for a half anyway. For the game, Calvin caught 6 passes for 86 yards and 2 touchdowns. 5 of those catches and both touchdowns came in the first half and I was well on my way to restoring the St. in St. Calvin, but then he only caught 1 pass in the second half and so I am being cautious still and he will remain simply Calvin.

The good news, obviously, is that Calvin was a difference maker in that first half. The bad news is that the Lions couldn't get him the ball in the second half - which perhaps not coincidentally was also the half that saw them settle for four field goals.

So what should we make of this performance? Well, it was a step in the right direction. Calvin was a weapon and he made a difference. He wasn't quite the dominant force that we need him to be, though. Hopefully, he can build on this and finally come out and give us the 10 catch, 3 touchdown day we've all been waiting for.

PREDICTION THE FOURTH: Aaron Rodgers will complete 35 of 45 passes for 375 yards and 4 touchdowns. After the fourth touchdown, I will disappear from this plane of existence and I will exist only in a parallel universe where Willie Young and I are wacky roommates with our own sitcom on FOX and whenever you see a rainbow you should think of me. If you want to contact me, find the end of the rainbow and search for a hidden door. Officially, I will be comatose in a mental institution but this is where my spirit will be.

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: In probably the most shocking stat to come out of the game (well, other than the gaudy fuck you stats put up by Hill) Rodgers completed only 12 of 17 passes for 181 yards and 3 touchdowns to go along with 2 interceptions.

This was not about the Lions defense shutting Rodgers down - not really anyway. This was about the Lions offense keeping the Packers offense off the field. The Lions controlled the ball and the clock so thoroughly that the Packers and Rodgers didn't have a chance to really put big numbers on the board. This was aided by Rodgers short circuiting and throwing a pair of costly interceptions that almost allowed the Lions to steal the game.

But, if we're being honest here, Rodgers could have had a big day. When he needed to pass, he was largely able to. All three touchdowns came in the first half and if a series of weird and unforeseen circumstances wouldn't have occurred - those costly interceptions, Jordy Nelson fumbling the ball and shaming Levar Burton in the process, the Lions offense controlling the clock so thoroughly - Rodgers' numbers would have likely been much greater. He simply didn't have the ball in his hands enough to make it happen.

Of course, that in itself can be taken as a victory for the defense. It was really a team effort - the offense, the defense and the special teams all conspired to keep the ball out of Rodgers' hands - but at the end of the day, results are what matters and the results were that the defense allowed Rodgers to throw for only 181 yards and picked off two passes.

Does it mean much going forward? I doubt it. The circumstances were unique enough that they are probably not replicable. Too many things would have to happen in order for this to be something that we could rely upon regularly. Sure, the offense might control the ball better in one game, and the defense might force turnovers in another game and the kick returner might fumble a couple of balls in yet another game, but really, the only way the Lions defense can stop a quarterback like Rodgers is if all those things happen in the same game. Hell, all those things did happen and the dude still completed 70 percent of his passes and threw for 3 touchdowns, so . . . yeah, I wouldn't get too excited. Perhaps if we could add meteor strike to that list of circumstantial events, then the Lions could actually completely stop a quarterback.

Meanwhile, I am still here, on this plane of existence and if you spent the last couple of days searching for me at the end of a rainbow, well . . . I offer no apologies because you are probably high as fuck and I'm guessing you had fun anyway.

PREDICTION THE FIFTH: *sobs*

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: I only cried twice - once when I accidentally kicked myself in the balls with the heel of my foot when I sat down at a weird angle and once when I sprayed myself in the eyes with mace. I don't have to explain myself, Goddamn it. I'm a scientist.